All-ukrainian rolling research «Rubicon»: Wave 3

The RUBICON project is a CATI survey of a rolling format: every day we survey the same sample size (N = 200), representative to gender, age, town and region of residence of Ukraine.

In this way, we accumulate a total array of data, consisting of effective daily arrays.

This allows not only get up-to-date data, but also to track dynamics daily or over a period of time (which is especially actual in non-standard conditions of social development, which is exactly what is now observed in Ukraine).

Thus, we entered a weekly sample of 1400 respondents and in this report analyzes the results of three waves of study (I + II + III weeks).

So, to your attention the results of work with a total sample of 4220 respondents, of which:

-1400 first-wave respondents (March 28 – April 3, 2020)

-1410 second-wave respondents (April 4 – April 11, 2020)

-1410 third wave respondents (April 11 – April 17, 2020)

The expected average sampling error at a confidence probability of 0.95 ±3,5%.

See the full version of the report in the Ukrainian or Russian version. 

The main conclusions

  • The results of the third wave of monitoring shows that at present the vast majority of Ukrainians continue to monitor developments related to the threat of the coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) in Ukraine (93% of respondents), and the introduction of quarantine measures nationwide (95%) The proportion of those who believe that quarantine is very necessary, in the third wave is observed approximately at the level of the second wave, and, therefore, a significant decrease in dynamics compared to wave 1 (72% at the beginning, 63% and 64% at wave 2 and wave 3, accordingly).
  • As before, about 3/4 of Ukrainians (75%) fear that they or their loved ones may (75%) fear that they might fall ill coronavirus. Compared to the previous wave, there is some increase in the frequency of mentions of such precautions as wearing a mask when leaving the house (from 87% to 91%), observance of social distance (from 64% to 70%) and avoiding crowded places (from 61% to 66%), and in comparison with the first – frequent hand washing (from 80% to 85%).
  • As in the previous wave, about 95% of the population is aware of certain symptoms of coronavirus. In case of symptoms, Ukrainians are ready to call a doctor today (71% versus 66% in the first wave), call an ambulance (32%), self-isolate (21% versus 28% in the previous wave), call a doctor home (14% vs. 17% in the first wave).
  • As before, about 90% of Ukrainians believe that, that with the transition to quarantine, they had new problems. Most often, these include financial difficulties (39% vs. 30% in the first wave), taking care for the health of loved ones (25% versus 30% in the first wave), lack of transport connections between cities (22% versus 14% previously) and anxiety due to the uncertainty of the situation (19%).
  • Today, the population as before often purchases food 2-3 times or once a week (accordingly, 45% and 36% of respondents). At the same time, most of them (83%) do not currently experience a shortage of any goods.
  • Currently, a significant part of Ukrainians (45% versus 41% a week ago) have no savings. The majority of owners of savings (30%) believe that savings will be enough no more than 1 month of residence.
  • During the current wave, Ukrainians still felt a contradictory range of positive and negative feelings. And if, compared to last week, the level of anxiety in the mass consciousness has not changed significantly (from 34% to 32%), then the level of hope, on the contrary, continued to rise (from 36% to 40%).
  • Today, quarantined Ukrainians are most often engaged in housekeeping, and for all waves proportion of mentions this increased (from 66% to 76%). Other activities include talking with family (from 36% to 43%), watching movies, series (from 33% to 38%), watching news (from 32% to 39%), and others.
  • Like a week ago, about every fourth Ukrainians continued to go to work (24%), and about every sixth (16%) worked remotely.
  • Today, after the lifting of quarantine, Ukrainians would most like to meet their relatives(51%), get together with friends (36%), escape to nature (34%), go to work (28%), and restore walking (28% ).
  • Now the views of Ukrainians on how their life will be after the quarantine differ significantly. In the current wave, 47% of them thought that their life after quarantine would not change overall (in the wave 2 the part of them was 42%), and 44% thought life would change to a greater or lesser extent.
  • At present, the attitude of the population of the country to the current government can mainly be characterized by two words distrust, the level of which has fallen slightly, compared to wave 2 (36% vs. 39% previously) and support, which in wave 3 returned almost to the level of wave 1 (32% now), indicating a certain split of public opinion on this subject. Today’s attitude to the actions of the authorities for prevention the coronavirus epidemic is quite ambiguous: 42% of the population (in wave 1 – 50%) consider them generally insufficient, and 47% (in wave 1 – 42%) find it rather optimal.
  • As in the previous week, in Ukraine residents is observed a certain predominance of positive assessments of the activity of the first persons of the state. Thus, in the estimates of President V. Zelensky’s activity, the ratio of positive and negative is, accordingly, 58% / 31%, in the estimates of Prime Minister D. Shmigal’s activity – 29% / 27%, and in the estimates of Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada D. Razumkov – 38%/26%. And, as before, a completely different ratio of estimates of such well-known politicians activities as A. Avakov (22% positive and 33% negative estimations), Yulia Tymoshenko (accordingly, 16% / 46%) and P. Poroshenko (17% / 53%).
  • As for medical workers, today the attitude towards them by Ukrainians is rather positive and mostly characterized by two concepts – support (43%) and respect (33%). At the same time, the population ambiguously assesses the readiness of the national health care system to cope with the current epidemic: 53% believe that it will cope with this task in general (wave 2 – 45%, wave 1 – 44%), and 39% adhere to the opposite views (wave 2 – 48%, wave 1 – 46%).

Presentation of the report on the third wave of the Rubicon project in PDF format: