All-ukrainian rolling research «Rubicon»: Wave 4

The RUBICON project is a CATI survey of a rolling format: every day we survey the same sample size (N = 200), representative to gender, age, town and region of residence of Ukraine.

In this way, we accumulate a total array of data, consisting of effective daily arrays.

This allows not only get up-to-date data, but also to track dynamics daily or over a period of time (which is especially actual in non-standard conditions of social development, which is exactly what is now observed in Ukraine).

Thus, we entered a weekly sample of 1400 respondents and in this report analyzes the results of four waves of study (I + II + III + IV weeks).

So, to your attention the results of work with a total sample of 5620 respondents, of which:

-1400 first-wave respondents (March 28 – April 3, 2020)

-1410 second-wave respondents (April 4 – April 11, 2020)

-1410 third wave respondents (April 11 – April 17, 2020)

-1408 fourth wave respondents (April 18 – April 24, 2020)

The expected average sampling error at a confidence probability of 0.95  is ±3,5%.

See the full version of the report in the Ukrainian or Russian version. 

The main conclusions:

  • The results of the fourth wave of the RUBICON monitoring project show that the country’s current coronavirus epidemic and its related quarantine (the first month of which has just ended) remain major events, that worry Ukrainians in one way or another, because they bring with them certain changes, problems and fears in their lives, and for someone they prove to be quite cardinal.
  • As before, about 3/4 of Ukrainians (74%) in one way or another fear that they themselves or their loved ones can get coronavirus. However, the proportion of those who are very afraid of this, compared to the first wave, decreased (from 40% to 29%). Nowadays, among Ukrainians there area significant prevalence of those who consider the epidemic more or less a real danger, over those who find this danger in general exaggerated (68% vs. 28%, accordingly).
  • Compared with the previous wave, there was a significant decrease in the frequency of respondents mentioning the use of such precautionary measures as switching to remote mode (from 21% to 16%), refusal to use public transport (from 56% to 49%), refusal to leave the house unnecessary (from 76% to 71%), surface disinfection (from 66% to 59%), frequent ventilation of premises (from 65% to 56%) and reduced frequency of shopping (from 64% to 56%).
  • Today, a relatively small proportion of Ukraine’s population (5%) are among those who personally familiar with those who have a confirmed diagnosis of coronavirus. However, the majority of Ukrainians (59%) believe that the worst thing related with the coronavirus is still ahead. Perhaps for this reason three quarters of the adult population (76%) supports in general the continuation of quarantine until May 12, and more than half (52%) are ready for its extension and for a longer term.
  • As before, about 90% of Ukrainians believe that they have had new problems with the transition to quarantine. Most often these include financial difficulties (39% now versus 30% in the first wave), care for the health of loved ones (22% now against 30% in the first wave) and lack of transport connections between cities (22% now against 14% earlier).
  • Currently, a significant part of Ukrainians (46% versus 39% in the first wave) have no savings. And the majority who have savings (29%) think that they will not have enough more than a month of residence. At the same time, half of the interviewed population says that their income level has decreased overall, it is difficult for every seventh Ukrainian to pay their bills. While one in five of respondent points out that the current financial situation has not adversely affected them.
  • During the current wave, Ukrainians continue to experience a contradictory range of positive and negative experiences. Today, compared to the first wave of monitoring,  in social sentiment there is a slight decrease of anxiety (from 38% to 31%) and fear (from 20% to 13%) , as well as a slight increase in the level of hope (from 32% to 38%).
  • Today, over a quarter of Ukrainians continue to go to work (28% versus 23% in the second wave), and about one in seven (14%) work remotely. Like a week ago, Ukrainians would most like to meet their relatives after quarantining (45%), get together with friends (33%), get outdoors (29%), go to work (28%) and resume outdoor walks (23%). Most often, they tend to think that quarantine made them care more about health (44%), to put aside money for a “financial pillow“ (33%) and to spend more time with their loved ones (32%).
  • Now views of Ukrainian on how their life will be after the quarantine differ significantly. In the current wave, 48% of them thought their life after quarantine would not change overall (in the 1st wave their part was 42%), and 43% thought that the life would change to a greater or lesser extent.
  • Currently, the attitude to the current government is mainly characterized by two experiences distrust, expressed by 37% of the population, and support expressed by 31% of Ukrainians. This indicates a certain split of public opinion on the perception of the country’s leadership. Today, the attitude to the authorities actions concerning the prevention of the coronavirus epidemic is quite ambiguous: 40% of the population (at a wave of 1 – 50%) consider this actions generally insufficient, and 47% (at a wave of 1 – 42%) find out this actions quite optimal.
  • As for medical workers, today the attitude towards them by Ukrainians is rather positive and is characterized, most often, by two concepts – support (42%) and respect (36%). At the same time, the population ambiguously assesses the readiness of the national healthcare system to cope with the current epidemic: 50% believe that it will cope with this task in general (in the first – 44%), and 41% stick to the opposite views (in the first wave – 46%).
  • As before, in the estimations of the residents of Ukraine the activity of the first persons of the state, as a rule, is observed the predominance of the positive component over the negative. Thus, in the estimates of President V. Zelensky’s activity, the ratio of positive and negative is, accordingly, 55% / 33%, in Prime Minister D. Shmigal’s estimates of activity – 28% / 29%, and in the estimates of the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada D. Razumkov – 35% / 30%. And, as before, quite different is the ratio of the ratings for such well-known politicians as A. Avakov (15% positive and 37% negative estimates), Y. Tymoshenko (accordingly, 17% / 44%) and P. Poroshenko (15%/ 53%).

Presentation of the report on the fourth wave of the Rubicon project in PDF format: