All-ukrainian rolling research «Rubicon»: Wave 2

The RUBICON project is a CATI survey of a rolling format: every day we survey the same sample size (N = 200), representative to gender, age, town and region of residence of Ukraine.

In this way, we accumulate a total array of data, consisting of effective daily arrays.

This allows not only get up-to-date data, but also to track dynamics daily or over a period of time (which is especially actual in non-standard conditions of social development, which is exactly what is now observed in Ukraine).

Thus, we entered a weekly sample of 1400 respondents and in this report analyzes the results of two waves of research (the first + second week) in several directions.

So, to your attention the results of work with a total sample of 2810 respondents, of which:

-1400 first-wave respondents (March 28 – April 3, 2020)

-1410 second-wave respondents (April 4 – April 11, 2020)

The expected average sampling error at a confidence probability of 0.95 ±3,5%.

Further, with more sample accumulation, we will update these results.

See the full version of the report in the Ukrainian version. 

The main conclusions:

  • The results of the second wave of monitoring shows that at present, the vast majority of Ukrainians continue to monitor developments related to the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine (95% of respondents), and the introduction of quarantine measures nationwide (96%). Over the last week, the proportion of those who consider quarantine very necessary has fallen slightly (from 72% to 63%).
  • As before, about 3/4 of Ukrainians (76%) fear that they or their relatives may be infected with a coronavirus. But over the past period, the proportion of those who are very afraid of this has decreased (from 40% to 32%), and the proportion of those who as afraid so much no has increased (from 14% to 17%). At the same time, the frequency of mentions about the use of such precautionary measures as frequent washing of hands (from 80% to 84%), wearing a mask (from 78% to 87%), observance of social distance (from 56% to 64%), disinfection of surfaces ( from 57% to 62%), ventilation (from 59% to 65%) and shopping online (from 11% to 13%).
  • As in the previous wave, the majority of the population is aware of certain symptoms of coronavirus and when they appear are ready to call a doctor (69%), rarely – call an ambulance (34%), isolate yourself (28%), call a doctor home (16%) or take some other step.
  • Also, as in the first week of the study, about 90% of Ukrainians believe that they have new problems with the transition to quarantine. Most often, these include the emergence of financial difficulties (36% in wave 2 versus 30% earlier) and caring for relatives (28%).
  • Currently the vast majority of the population (69% of respondents) is quarantined without pre-made stock of foodstuff and essential commodities. Today, many of them find themselves in a difficult financial situation: 41% of Ukrainians have no savings, and most of the available savings (31%) will be no more than a month’s residence. At the same time, according to the respondents, one day of food costs today for the average Ukrainian family at 294 UAH (a week ago – at 255 UAH), and the month of residence – at 9 235 UAH (a week ago – at 8 826 UAH).
  • During the current wave, Ukrainians continue to experience a contradictory range of positive and negative emotions. At the same time, compared to last week, the level of anxiety in the mass consciousness has slightly decreased (from 38% to 34%), and the level of hope and confidence, on the contrary, increased (accordingly, from 32% to 36% and from 5% to 8%).
  • In quarantine, Ukrainians are most often engaged in housekeeping, the number of such Ukrainians in the last week has increased slightly (78% against 66% earlier). Among other activities they devote their time to can be called communication with the family (44% vs. 36%), watching movies, TV series (41% vs. 33%), watching the news (40% vs. 32%), reading the news, articles (33% vs. 27%), and several others.
  • Today, the opinions of Ukrainians about what their life after the quarantine will be, differ markedly. In the second wave, 47% believe that their life after quarantine will more or less change (previously, their share was 43%), and 42% adhered to the opposite view (that is, everything will remain about the same as before).
  • At present, the attitude of the population to the current government can mainly be characterized by two words distrust, whose level has increased slightly (39% vs 34% before), and support, which in this case declined slightly (28% vs 34% before), indicating a certain split in public opinion on the subject. Today’s attitude to the actions of the authorities concerning the prevention of the coronavirus epidemic is quite ambiguous: 41% of the population (previously – 50%) find them generally insufficient, and 48% (previously – 42%) find them quite optimal.
  • As before, there is a certain predominance of positive assessments of the activity of top state officials. Thus, in the assessments of President V. Zelensky’s activity the ratio of positive and negative estimates is, accordingly, 59% / 28%, in Prime Minister D. Shmigal’s estimates of activity is 28% / 23%, and in the estimates of the Chairman of The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine D. Razumkov is 37% / 24%. And as before, it is quite different the ratio of the estimates of such well-known politicians, as A. Avakov (22% positive and 36% negative), Y. Tymoshenko (accordingly, 19% / 46%) and P. Poroshenko (17% / 54%).
  • As for medical workers, today the attitude towards them by Ukrainians is rather positive and is characterized, most often, in two words – support (40% vs. 43% previously) and respect (37% vs. 32% previously). At the same time, the population ambiguously assesses the readiness of the national healthcare system to cope with the current epidemic: as before, 45% of the population believe that it is able in general to cope with this task, and 48% hold the opposite view.
  • Over the last week, Ukrainians’ views on whether coronavirus unites people or not have not changed significantly: approximately half of the population (47%) believes that coronavirus in general contributes to the unification, while 39% hold the opposite view.

Presentation of the report on the second wave of the Rubicon project in PDF format: